Being lactose intolerant, you'd think I'd stay away from a team whose fans wear cheese heads. However, they have one of the more interesting offenses to look at for the upcoming season. After all, they didn't draft a running back in the first few rounds meaning they're likely heading into the year with Ty Montgomery as their primary back. Since he's not a back in the traditional sense, it seems like the Packers may be inclined to throw the ball more. Let's see if that is really the case.
The Packers Pass Attempts
The Packers attempted 620 passes last season, the 5th most in the league last season. 610 of those passes were attempted by Aaron Rodgers and easily blew his old career high set last season of 572 out of the water. The other 10 were attempted by backup Brett Hundley, who wasn't overly impressive in his small sample size. There is something special to note here though-this is my first Breaking Down The Targets in a while where a receiver hasn't attempted one pass for a perfect long touchdown pass!
Maybe it's just me-but I was surprised to find that the Packers didn't have three receivers who had over 100 targets. Jordy Nelson saw the most at 152, followed by Davante Adams at 121, and finally Randall Cobb at 84. The running backs group saw 104 targets, led by converted running back Ty Montgomery who had 56. The tight-ends saw almost as many as the running backs at 103, led by pre-season hype favorite Jared Cook who had 51.That also means that the Packers WR4 + saw a total of 50 targets as a group. That's pretty significant volume tied to an elite quarterback!
So why did Aaron Rodgers suddenly reach new passing attempt heights in 2016? Eddie Lacy getting injured had to be a pretty big factor. Despite all the hate coming Lacy's way this off-season, he was averaging 5.1 YPC and 72 yards per game before the injury. Montgomery did an excellent job filling in with 5.9 YPC but he only averaged 30 yards per game. The Packers clearly limited Montgomery's volume because they were worried about defenders turning his body into Swiss cheese.
It may be a small sample size, but ever since Edgar Bennett was promoted from wide receiver coach to offense coordinator the Packers have thrown the ball more. In his first year, Aaron Rodgers jumped from 520 attempts to 572. Then last season he jumped up to the 610 I mentioned earlier.
2017 Predictions
What does this all mean for the 2017 team? Well, since the Packers didn't draft a running back in the first few rounds-it's clear Ty Montgomery is their guy. Montgomery only rushed the ball more than 10 times in three games last season, and that includes the playoffs. That means this should be a team that still throws the ball a ton!
I'm still going to play it slightly conservatively and say that attempts do go down slightly to somewhere in the 590 range. That would have placed the Packers as the team with the 12th most attempts last season, and leaves plenty of room for all their receivers to get work. So what will the offense look like with Mr. Touchdown Doubledown slinging the ball 590 times?
Well, Jordy Nelson is going to get the biggest cheese wheel. If I told you that Jordy would miss his entire age 30 season and come back to put up a 97-1257-14 line you probably would have laughed in my face. That's exactly what he did, and while there was a year gap he has seen back to back seasons of 150+ targets. I still expect a slight decrease for him, only because I believe the Packers will want to groom other players as his eventual replacement. With that in mind,I'll peg him for about 140 targets.
Now here is where I have to admit that I was completely wrong about a player. Back in 2015, I grew frustrated with Davante Adams and his 50% (give or take) catch rate. I shipped him and a 2016 1st for Jeremy Maclin, a 2016 1st, and 2017 2nd. Adams must have felt like he had a chip on his shoulder after being traded by my team, because last season he posted a 75-997-12 line on 122 targets. Ouch.
Some of Adams volume was due to a host of injuries to Randall Cobb (ankle, hamstring, and lungs), but he definitely showed that he is worth throwing to. I'm making the Macaulay Culkin face just typing this, but Adams should see large volume again this year. I'd expect right around 120 targets again.
Some of Adams volume was due to a host of injuries to Randall Cobb (ankle, hamstring, and lungs), but he definitely showed that he is worth throwing to. I'm making the Macaulay Culkin face just typing this, but Adams should see large volume again this year. I'd expect right around 120 targets again.
Where does that leave Randall Cobb? Is he as useless as someone who just ate 10 deep fried Oreos at the Wisconsin State Fair? Not quite. He only played in 13 games last year because of all those injuries I mentioned, and still saw 84 targets. He ended the regular season pretty horribly, but saw an average of 8 targets per game in the playoffs. In the three playoff games the Packers played, Cobb also had his best games of 2017.I don't think he will break 100 targets, but I still see 95 as a possibility.
The running backs group may see increased targets as a result of Ty Montgomery being the main guy now. However, the 56 targets he saw last season would be a three year high for the Packers. The next closest is the 55 targets Eddie Lacy saw in 2014. The running back group will get around 90 targets this season.
What does that mean for Martellus Bennett truthers? They may be disappointed. Since 2006 when Mike McCarthy took over guess how many times the Packers have targeted their tight-end at least 75 times? If you guessed 3, congrats. You win an over-sized teddy bear!
Two of those were to Aaron Rodgers' BFF Jermichael Finley. Though things don't look ALL bad for Bennett. In the last three games of the season combined with the playoffs, Jared Cook saw 53 targets. That's more than anyone else on the team in those final six games, and was likely a significant factor in why the team signed Bennett. That said, I'm predicting him to fall short of being the 4th tight-end on the Packers to break the 75 targets under the Mccarthy regime. He will see around 70 targets this coming season.
Conclusion
Sorry Jeff Janis fans. That only leaves 50 of my predicted targets left up for grabs, and I'd expect those to get spread around. Granted, injuries could happen and we could see a guy like Geronimo Allison step up but this is what I'd expect if everyone stays healthy.
What are the takeaways? I'm very worried about Martellus Bennett. Yes he's tied to an elite quarterback, but even dating back to his days as offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy has only targeted a tight-end at least 75 times four times in his career. He's also only had a tight end break 700 yards under his watch ONCE.
Here's what Martellus Bennett looks like on 70 targets: 49-515-5. If that's correct he would fall from the 8th best .5 PPR tight-end last season to around the 17th this upcoming season. The drop may not be as drastic, but I'm selling while I can still get top prices for him.
In fact, Bennett is currently going before Kyle Rudolph and Coby Fleener according to the most recent DLF ADP. At this point I'd rather flip him to acquire one of those guys, and the extra 2nd (if I'm lucky) or 3rd I could pick up in a deal for those guys. You may have gotten used to these articles telling you to acquire a player, but this time I'm telling you to put the stinky cheese away.
Until next time,
Rek
@RekedFantasy
*All stats pulled from http://www.pro-football-reference.com, and https://dynastyleaguefootball.com
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